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Influence of Lake Ice Biases in Reanalysis Data on Downscaled Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region

Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: This study investigates the unrealistic representation of lake ice in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5) over the Laurentian Great Lakes and its influence on regional climate modeling. Focusing on the high-ice-cover winter of 2009, we find that ERA5 systematically overestimates lake ice extent, with near-complete coverage persisting into April. This excessive ice cover suppresses sensible and latent heat fluxes, producing anomalously cold and dry atmospheric conditions, with temperature biases up to 13°C and lake-effect precipitation underestimated by up to 60% downwind of Lake Michigan-Huron and more than 100% over the eastern side of Lake Superior in late January. In contrast, simulations with a fully coupled lake-atmosphere model initialized from ice-free conditions given sufficient spin-up produce more realistic ice evolution. The improved ice representation provides better surface boundary conditions and reduces biases in air temperature, wind speed, and lake-effect precipitation.
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.175916613.30361389/v1
Authors: Jiali Wang, Pengfei Xue, Kyle Peco, Chenfu Huang, William James Pringle, Zhao Yang, TC Chakraborty, Yun Qian, Robert D. Hetland
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy, Battelle, Michigan Technological University, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Argonne National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Awards: G1202769797, G125460123, G138090931, G1899721271, G2506945562, G2510423872, G2820049545, G2988778103, G299733460, G391136020, G5321382714, G5373841109, G5726405315, G821644656
OpenAlex ID: W4414629843
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