Work

Media reports of coup d’etat and democratic attitude in neighboring countries

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This study examines the impact of a military coup on citizens’ democratic attitudes in neighboring countries. Previous studies have examined the domestic consequences of coups and the possibility of coup contagion across countries, yet little is known about how citizens in neighboring countries respond to coups, despite the potential implications of public opinion for incentives surrounding future coup attempts. Using a nationally representative survey from multiple countries and the unexpected event during survey design, we demonstrate that individuals exposed to news of the coup express greater support for democracy and elections and greater rejection of authoritarian rule, suggesting that citizens view the coup as a cause of political instability rather than a means of liberalization. The effect size is comparable across countries and respondent characteristics, while TV and radio owners react more quickly. These results cannot be explained by media bias, institutional trust, citizens’ learning about the poor performance of military regimes, or concern about their future economic instability. Given the high costs of coup attempts under strong popular opposition, stronger public support for democracy may reduce incentives for coups in neighboring countries. These findings also provide one possible micro-level explanation for the limited empirical support for the coup contagion hypothesis.

Source: Journal of Peace Research

DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag052

Authors: Yu Osaki, Masahiro Shoji

Institutions: Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting (Japan), Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo

Language: English

Topic: Political Conflict and Governance

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,900