Work

Projecting Future Ozone Episodes in China by 2060 Under Diverse Emission and Climate Pathways: Insights From Extreme Value Theory

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Ozone concentrations in China have been rising since 2013 despite emission reductions, yet future episode frequencies remain poorly investigated. In this study, we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to project ozone episode frequency in China by 2060, integrating six emission pathways and four climate scenarios. Under the baseline (most polluted) scenario, annual population‐weighted ozone exceedances (>82 ppb, national standard) reach 65 days nationally and 112 days in northern China by 2060, with climate change driving >50% of the increases. In the 1.5°C (cleanest) scenario, reduced emissions considerably lower ozone levels nationally, yet northern China still experiences 56 annual exceedances of the WHO Interim Target 2 (>61 ppb). Across all scenarios, ozone episode frequency and its temperature sensitivity continuously decline with anthropogenic NO x emissions reduction, highlighting the critical role of NO x mitigation in curbing ozone episodes.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl116891

Authors: Fengwei Wan, Lu Shen, Mingwei Li

Institutions: Peking University, Tsinghua University

Language: English

Topic: Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190