Work

Using state space models to understand trait evolution in fossil lineages

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Linear state space models provide a useful framework for investigating phenotypic evolution in fossil lineages for a wide variety of models representing Brownian motion, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, and the potential influence of environmental covariates. A state space framework also provides access to residuals for the predicted and observed values at each time point as well as improved numerical stability. We illustrate the value of the state space approach by reanalyzing a classic dataset of trait evolution in the diatom lineage Stephanodiscus yellowstonensis. A series of increasingly complex models were fit to these data, including a novel modification of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model in which a trait tracks an exogenous covariate. These model results suggest that the number of spines on the periphery of the diatom is best explained by adaptation to changing solar insolation over time.

Source: Paleobiology

DOI: 10.1017/pab.2025.10075

Authors: Gene Hunt, Wilmer Martínez-Rivera, Melanie Jane Hopkins, John Fricks, Beckett Sterner

Institutions: Smithsonian Institution, Banco de la República Colombia, American Museum of Natural History, Arizona State University

Language: English

Topic: Evolution and Paleontology Studies

Subfield: Paleontology

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,550

Funders: John Templeton Foundation, Université de Bordeaux