Work

Effects of climate change on PM2.5 formation chemistry, and the associated human health impacts and economic costs in Southeast Asia

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Climate change poses a significant threat to both the environment and human health. Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution is one of the major issues affected by climate change, especially in tropical areas such as Southeast Asia. However, the PM 2.5 formation mechanism and the climate-driven impacts on PM 2.5 levels, compositions, human health, and economy in Southeast Asia have yet to be thoroughly assessed. Here we employed regional climate and air quality models to simulate PM 2.5 over Southeast Asia, identifying the PM 2.5 regime in Southeast Asia and analyzing the role of ammonia (NH 3 ) in the PM 2.5 formation. We then projected PM 2.5 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, evaluating the impacts of climate change on PM 2.5 and the resultant human health impacts and economic costs. We found that NH 3 reductions had minimal impact on PM 2.5 concentration in Southeast Asia due to the prevalent NH 3 -rich conditions in the region. Controlling volatile organic compounds (VOC) and sulfur dioxides (SO 2 ) is more effective in reducing secondary PM 2.5 in Southeast Asia. Under climate change, the overall PM 2.5 concentration in Southeast Asia is projected to decrease by ∼2–10 % by 2050 under all scenarios, notably for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) levels (∼41–61 %) driven by future warmer climate conditions. The total PM 2.5 -attributed premature mortality in Southeast Asia is projected to increase by ∼7 % under SSP126 and ∼10 % under SSP585 by 2050, particularly in Indonesia and Thailand. The increased PM 2.5 -attributable premature mortality was estimated to induce an economic loss of $447 and $591 billion (in 2019 USD), respectively, under SSP126 and SSP585 by 2050. Therefore, a more stringent PM 2.5 control policy is essential to mitigate PM 2.5 pollution and the adverse human health impacts and economic costs in Southeast Asia under climate change.

Source: Environment International

DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109835

Authors: Tingting Fang, Yefu Gu, Jiaying Li, Joseph J.Y. Sung, Steve H.L. Yim

Institutions: Nanyang Technological University, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health, Macao Polytechnic University

Language: English

Topic: Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $4,750