Epidemiology and burden of early-onset cardiovascular disease in China: A bayesian modelling study
Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Background and objectives: Early-onset cardiovascular disease (ECVD) poses a growing public health challenge in China. We quantified incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ECVD from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to 2035. Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we analyzed ECVD (onset <55 years in males, <65 years in females) by sex and age, reporting age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and DALY (ASDR) rates, with uncertainty intervals (UIs). Risk factor attribution and projections used established GBD frameworks. Results: In 2021, ECVD affected 1.71 million males and 2.93 million females, causing 236,000 and 259,000 deaths and 11.41 and 10.77 million DALYs, respectively. Females had higher ASIR and ASPR (ASIR: 337.96 vs 234.81; ASPR: 3332.87 vs 2057.09), but lower ASMR and ASDR (ASMR: 27.20 vs 29.09; ASDR: 1190.73 vs 1481.45) than males. From 1990 to 2021, ASMR and ASDR declined (males: −1.44% and −1.41% average annual percent change; females: −3.71% and −3.28%). In 2021, ischemic heart disease led male ECVD deaths and DALYs; intracerebral hemorrhage led in females. High systolic blood pressure was the dominant metabolic risk factor; smoking in males and hypertension in females were principal behavioral/metabolic contributors. Projections indicate continued declines in ASMR and ASDR through 2035. Conclusions: Despite rising or stable incidence, ECVD mortality and DALY rates have decreased in China since 1990, with sex-specific patterns. Stroke and ischemic heart disease remain the major contributors. Intensified control of hypertension and tobacco use is critical to further reduce premature ECVD burden.
Language: English
Subfield: Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4414989640
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