Work

Two stochastic versions of the Arps decline curve

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: • Analyse of stochastic curve declines. • Introduction of uncertainty in curve decline. • Oil and gas application. Based on the Arps equation, we propose two stochastic models for decline curve useful in oil engineering context. These stochastic models allow to take into account non-monotonic curve and to integrate randomness. Theoretical properties and simulations of these models are provided. The first passage time distribution of these stochastic models to a constant level is then studied. In conclusion, we introduce the oil production cumulative rate defined as the integral of the studied stochastic process over a given time interval. Statistical inference of the parameters could based on this integrated stochastic models. All these models provide a theoretical framework that could be applied to data in future work.

Source: Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation

DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2025.109400

Author: Christian Paroissin

Institutions: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, Laboratoire de Mathématiques et de leurs Applications

Language: English

Topic: Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods

Subfield: Ocean Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,710

OpenAlex ID: W4415015291

FWCI:

Cites: 25

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