Work

Do Betting Markets Sense a Goal Coming? Evidence From the German Bundesliga

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: We investigate whether betting markets anticipate news by analyzing bookmaker odds and betting stakes before the first goal in football matches. Using high-resolution (1 Hz) data from a European bookmaker covering one season of Germany’s top league, we apply regression and state-space models to examine odds and stakes movement before the first goal—a key event influencing match outcomes. Results show that both bookmakers and bettors significantly adjust their behavior in response to match dynamics but do not anticipate goals. This absence of predictive adjustment is consistent with semi-strong form efficiency in the pregoal period, in the sense that odds and stakes do not move beyond what can be explained by publicly observable match dynamics.

Source: International Journal of Sport Finance

DOI: 10.1177/15586235261463775

Authors: David Winkelmann, Christian Deutscher

Institutions: University of Vienna, Bielefeld University

Language: English

Topic: Sports Analytics and Performance

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Funder: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

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