Extreme Snowfall at High Elevations: A Historical Analysis of Elevation-Dependent SWE Trends in a Warming Climate
Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Warming temperatures are causing an uphill shift of the rain-snow transition zone, reducing snow at lower elevations. However, a warmer atmosphere can retain and transport more moisture, increasing the chance of extreme precipitation events. We hypothesize that at high elevations above the snowline, the combination of lower temperatures and enhanced atmospheric moisture can lead to more snow accumulation. Using Sierra Nevada SWE reanalysis and observational data, we show that, excluding dry years, warmer winters accumulate more high-elevation SWE from extreme storms. When analyzing individual storm events, we find a nonlinear response to storm temperature: at elevations above ~3000 m, SWE increases with temperature up to a threshold storm temperature, beyond which accumulation declines, revealing a tradeoff between enhanced moisture and temperature. We find a significant temperature–elevation interaction, showing that the response of extreme storms to warming is elevation-dependent. These findings suggest that warming storms could increase snow accumulation in high-elevation areas, affecting water resource strategies.
Authors: Sarah Ryu, Stefano Casirati, Manuela Girotto
Institution: University of California, Berkeley
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4415106966
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