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Revisiting The Public Debt-GDP Growth Relationship in Indonesia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This paper investigates the asymmetric relationship between public debt and economic growth by incorporating inflation and the total gross ‎savings from 1976 to 2022. The study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to examine the asymmetric ‎cointegration between the variables. An asymmetric causality test also examines the causal association between the considered variables. The ‎results indicate cointegration between the variables in the presence of asymmetries. The findings on asymmetric causality suggest that all the ‎variables, public debt, inflation, and savings, affect economic growth. Lastly, the implications of these results for Indonesia's growth policies are also explored because this will have important implications for policymakers in Indonesia, highlighting the need for sustainable ‎fiscal policies and debt management strategies to ensure long-term economic stability‎.

Source: International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies

DOI: 10.14419/nhrhwk80

Authors: Aminudin Ma'ruf, Mohammad Wasil, Dimas Galih Saputra

Institution: Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Language: English

Topic: Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: bronze

OpenAlex ID: W4415204124

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