Year: 2025
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: Space weather drives on-orbit anomalies through multiple, orbit-dependent pathways.In low Earth orbit (LEO), enhanced thermospheric drag during storms, nighttime auroral charging, and galactic-cosmic-ray (GCR) single-event effects (SEE) are prominent.In geostationary orbit (GEO), surface and deep-dielectric charging-often amplified on the nightside during substorm injections-remain leading root causes.Using consolidated anomaly catalogs (Seradata/SpaceTrak aggregates, GOES operator logs) and supplemental fleet counts from UCS snapshots, we quantify anomaly occurrence per satellite-year by orbit regime and examine dependences on magnetic local time (MLT), geomagnetic activity (daily Kpmax, GFZ/WDC), and solar-cycle phase (sunspot number v2.0).Normalization by exposure shows that the daily probability of anomaly rises sharply for Kp ≥ 5, even though raw counts are larger under quiet conditions because quiet days dominate.The solar-cycle analysis reveals a pre-maximum enhancement consistent with outer-belt acceleration and cumulative MeV-electron fluence that governs internal charging, whereas a GCR-related SEE contribution in LEO partly anti-correlates with sunspot number.We synthesize these relationships into mitigation guidance: (i) design hardening (conductive/UV-stable surfaces and bonding, minimized floating dielectrics, rad-hard parts, current limiting, ECC/TMR with scrubbing); (ii) operational playbooks keyed to upstream solar-wind/SEP/electron monitors and geomagnetic indices; and (iii) calibrated forecasts/nowcasts and AE9/AP9/SPM-based specifications that map environment to anomaly likelihood by orbit and MLT.The framework provides actionable thresholds for fleet operations and transparent benchmarks for future anomaly reporting and model validation.
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4415218178
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