Daily and Monthly Predictions of the Maximum CME Speed Index for Solar Cycle 25 Using Simplex Projection Method
Year: 2025
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their speed are not only important indicators of solar activity, but also for geomagnetic activity.In this study, we present daily and monthly predictions for Solar Cycle 25 using the Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the Simplex Projection method.By generating both short-term (daily) and long-term (monthly) predictions for MCMESI, we demonstrate the predictability of this parameter.The monthly mean data set was derived from daily values, and predictions for the continuation of Solar Cycle 25 produced using monthly mean MCMESI.Both datasets cover the period from May 1999 to January 2025.Predictions generated from the monthly mean data suggest that Solar Cycle 25 is expected to complete in the mid-2030s.Solar Cycle 25 appears to be stronger than Solar Cycle 24 in terms of amplitude.For the daily predictions, we successfully postcasted (repredicted) the last week of December 2024 and the first week of January 2025 on a daily basis.
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
Funder: Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
OpenAlex ID: W4415218599
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