Work

The impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on European electricity mix: Evidence from a difference-in-differences approach

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The Russia–Ukraine war has fundamentally reshaped European energy landscape, raising urgent questions about energy security, dependency, and the pace of clean energy transition. This study investigates whether the war acted as a catalyst for accelerating the adoption of clean energy in electricity generation among European countries, particularly those highly dependent on Russian fossil fuels. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach, the analysis exploits monthly panel data from 10 EU countries between 2017 and 2025. Results reveal that high-dependency countries experienced a statistically significant increase of 6.55 percentage points in clean energy share after the war, suggesting that geopolitical crises can trigger structural shifts in national energy mixes. Robustness tests—including placebo tests, alternative control groups, and controls for the European Green Deal—confirm the reliability of the findings. These findings offer timely evidence that energy transition and energy security are not mutually exclusive, but potentially reinforcing under geopolitical stress. This research sheds light on the evolving relationship between energy policy, international conflict, and climate goals—offering valuable insights for policymakers navigating Europe’s clean energy future.

Source: Utilities Policy

DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2026.102228

Authors: Zihao Song, Ralf Becker

Institution: University of Manchester

Language: English

Topic: Global Energy Security and Policy

Subfield: General Energy

Field: Energy

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Peace, justice, and strong institutions, Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,950