Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability globally, encompassing various other modes of variability, and thus represents a key predictable climate signal on seasonal timescales. Yet, its response to greenhouse warming remains uncertain, with models projecting a range of outcomes. Here, we demonstrate that in response to warming, a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model simulates a rapid transition from a moderate-amplitude irregular regime, as observed in the current climate, to a highly regular oscillation with intensifying amplitude. This behaviour can be attributed to increasing air-sea feedbacks, which approach criticality in the second half of this century, and growing atmospheric noise. As ENSO intensifies in this model, it synchronizes with other prominent climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, thereby imprinting its regular, predictable variability on them. If realized, this global climate mode resonance would have wide-ranging whiplash impacts on regional hydroclimates. The authors of this study perform simulations with a high-resolution climate model and show that global warming may trigger an abrupt shift in the tropical climate system towards stronger and more predictable ENSO cycles, intensifying climate impacts across the globe.
Source: Nature Communications
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $6,990
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission, Institute for Basic Science, European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency, Korea Research Environment Open Network, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Climate Program Office
OpenAlex ID: W4415266171