Work

Growth stage-dependent extreme temperature stresses on crop yield

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events, posing growing threats to food security. This study develops a phenology-based framework to assess their impact on wheat and maize yields in Henan Province, China. Leveraging high-resolution phenological and meteorological data, crop growth is segmented into three stages, with stage-specific thermal stress indices constructed for warm days, warm nights, cold days, and cold nights. Fixed-effect climate econometric models are specified to estimate the marginal yield impacts of extreme temperatures over 2000–2020, and future losses are projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Results show that wheat is most vulnerable to cold stress during transitional and reproductive stages, while maize is most affected during late development. Wheat suffers greater cumulative losses due to higher exposure and yield base. Between 2000 and 2020, extreme temperatures led to an estimated total loss of 1.02 million tons of grain. Future warming is projected to shift crop vulnerability from acute cold to chronic heat stress, with significant losses expected even under low-emission pathways. These findings highlight the need for crop- and stage-specific adaptation strategies to strengthen regional food security.

Source: Journal of Agriculture and Food Research

DOI: 10.1016/j.jafr.2025.102443