Two sides of the same coin? Hydrometeorological uncertainties in impact-based flood warning systems and climate change sensitivity of floodplains
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: The sensitivity of floodplains to floods of various magnitudes is strongly influenced by the relationship between hydrogeomorphology and the built environment. To provide a nuanced measure of impact sensitivity to changes in flood magnitude, we introduce a novel floodplain sensitivity index ( F S I ) that integrates slope and curvature metrics derived from the magnitude–impact curve. We apply the method to 179 floodplains in Switzerland. Our analysis reveals that higher flood magnitudes might substantially amplify impacts, given that many of the most sensitive magnitude thresholds have not yet been exceeded. We did not find coherent patterns in the F S I across geographic or topographic regions or along entire rivers. The shape of the impact curves and thus the impact sensitivity is specific not only to the floodplain but also to the type of impact. The F S I contributes to flood risk management by providing a method to identify critical flood magnitude thresholds that lead to severe impacts if exceeded. The F S I helps in assessing the effects of uncertainties in hydrometeorological forecasts on impact-based warnings and of uncertainties in climate change projections for long-term flood risk management strategies. • Flood magnitude–impact relationship mapped for main floodplains in Switzerland. • Novel floodplain sensitivity index (FSI) detects critical magnitude thresholds. • The FSI shows the relevance of hydrometeorological uncertainties in impact forecasts. • Floodplains’ sensitivity to increasing flood magnitudes is highly variable.
Source: Weather and Climate Extremes
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,969
OpenAlex ID: W4415320629