Comprehensive drought detection, spatiotemporal variations, and attribution across different agricultural climate zones in Eastern China using a copula-based drought index
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: The Agricultural Comprehensive Areas in Eastern China (ACAEC) are increasingly exposed to severe and frequent droughts under climate change and rising extremes, posing significant threats to agricultural production. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, large-scale drought assessments in the ACAEC, and the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms remain unclear. This study proposes a novel framework that develops a Copula-based Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) for 2001–2020, constructed from the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) using precipitation data (station-scale, National Meteorological Information Center) and root-zone soil moisture (1 km, National Tibetan Plateau Data Center). Based on this index, we combined the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests, which quantify temporal trends, with a Center-of-Gravity model that traces spatial migration, thereby providing a complementary assessment of drought evolution across Northeastern China (NEC), Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH), the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), and Southern China (SC). Additionally, we employed XGBoost and SHAP to quantify the contributions of various drivers to MSDI in different climatic zones. Our findings reveal a general worsening of drought conditions across ACAEC, characterized by a southward shift and increasing frequency, intensity, and severity of short-term events. While NEC shows slight improvement, drought severity in other regions has intensified beyond the regional average. Attribution analysis highlights SOL and DTR as dominant drivers in NEC and HHH (35.5 % and 39.1 %, respectively), whereas RH, NDVI, and PET exert greater influence in MLRYR and SC (38.6 % and 50.0 %, respectively). Based on these mechanisms, we proposed region-specific drought mitigation strategies to enhance sustainable agriculture, food security, and disaster resilience in China.
Source: Agricultural Water Management
Authors: Yiwen Ma, Xuan Yu, Maofen Li, Jiajian Huang, Hailiang Li, Tianjiao Zhong
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Zero hunger, Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,070
Funders: Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province, Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province, Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund for Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences
OpenAlex ID: W4415447415