Work

Eyewall Replacement Cycles as a Structural Driver of the Bimodal Distribution of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime Maximum Intensity

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity exhibits a distinct bimodal distribution, with peaks at tropical storm and major hurricane strength. Using a best‐track‐based algorithm to identify eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) storms, we show that ERC storms overwhelmingly populate the high‐intensity peak. Both reintensifying and non‐reintensifying ERC storms contribute, but those unable to reintensify cluster near 120–140 kt, defining the secondary peak. In contrast, reintensifying ERC storms can achieve higher intensities when moving over warmer seas with greater ocean heat content and reduced vertical wind shear. The scarcity of storms at intermediate intensities (85–105 kt) arises from rapid intensification (RI), which drives systems quickly through this range. These results clarify that while RI explains the trough at mid‐intensities, ERCs, by halting or enabling further strengthening, shape the high‐intensity peak and its upper tail. Incorporating ERC dynamics into intensity statistics may improve understanding and prediction of TC extremes.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118369

Authors: Elliott Fosler‐Lussier, Yuqing Wang

Institution: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

Language: English

Topic: Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190