Work

The next decade of cardiovascular disease burden in Qatar, a gulf cooperation council country: Projections from 2024 to 2033

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a great public health challenge in Qatar, with significant impacts on long-term population health and societal costs. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to forecast the health and economic burden of the CVD in Qatar from 2024 to 2033, from both healthcare and societal perspective. METHODS: A validated two-stage dynamic model was structured, spanning a 10-year period and targeting individuals aged 40-79. The CVD incidents (i.e., myocardial infarction [MI], stroke) were estimated using the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent events were obtained from the global REACH registry. The model outcomes included fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total direct costs, and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost inputs were derived from published sources. Outcomes were discounted at a rate of 3 % per annum. Calibration and validation were performed to ensure model accuracy. A multivariate sensitivity analysis was also conducted. RESULTS: By 2033, there will be 271,260 non-fatal MI events (95 % confidence interval [CI] 271,249-271,277), 258,892 non-fatal strokes (95 %CI 258,858-259,094), and 20,413 CVD deaths (95 %CI 20,405-20,429). The cumulative years of life lived and QALYs were 13,806,845 (95 % CI 13,802,149-13,811,541) and 10,655,665 (95 %CI 10,652,720-10,658,611), respectively. The direct costs were QAR71.14 (95 %CI QAR70.62-71.66) billion, and the productivity loss costs were estimated to surpass QAR108.12 (95 %CI QAR106.88-109.36) billion. The exchange rates used were based on 2024 values (1QAR=0.27US$). CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into the projected burden of CVD in Qatar, highlighting the need for effective preventive strategies to reduce risk.

Source: Current Problems in Cardiology

DOI: 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2025.103206