Work

Unveiling Critical Upper‐Tropospheric Dynamics Conducive to Extreme Precipitation Over the North China Plain

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Upper‐tropospheric systems demonstrate greater persistence, stability, and predictability than those in the middle‐to‐lower troposphere, making the understanding of upper‐tropospheric dynamics instructive for precipitation forecasting. This study investigates the critical upper‐tropospheric dynamics conducive to extreme precipitation events (EPEs) over the North China Plain (NCP). A method based on the spatial continuity of precipitation for detecting regional EPEs is used to identify 175 EPEs over the NCP during June–August in 1991–2022. The critical upper‐tropospheric system at the onset of the EPEs is an anomalous anticyclone over the NCP with an eastward displacement relative to the domain. This anticyclone establishes a circulation structure that promotes intense ascending airflows over the NCP. Ural blocking (UB) and the Silk Road pattern (SRP) are the primary drivers of upper‐tropospheric motions upstream of the NCP preceding the EPEs. The downstream propagations of both the southeastward wave train triggered by the decay of UB and the zonal wave train along the midlatitude westerly jet (i.e., the SRP) facilitate the development of the anomalous anticyclone over the NCP. The SRP exhibits stronger associations with tropical cyclones and higher‐intensity EPEs over the NCP than UB. Using objective methods, UB and the SRP are identified to be associated with ∼53% (93/175) and ∼46% (81/175) of the EPEs, respectively, and together accounting for ∼80% (140/175). This study provides new insights into the mechanisms driving EPEs over the NCP and establishes an interpretable connection between upper‐tropospheric motions over midlatitude Eurasia and precipitation extremes in East Asia.

Source: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

DOI: 10.1029/2025jd043902

Authors: Mingxi Zhang, Yu Zhang, Tiejian Li, Yongqiang Wang, Deyu Zhong

Institutions: Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Qinghai University, State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,070