Underestimating Learning by Doing
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Many economic decisions, such as whether to invest in developing new skills, change professions, or purchase a technology, benefit from accurate estimation of skill acquisition. We examine the accuracy of such predictions by having study participants predict the speed at which they will master unfamiliar tasks. Across three studies involving two types of tasks and two levels of difficulty, we find systematic underestimation of learning, even after receiving feedback. In a fourth study, participants predicting others' performance showed significantly less underestimation, suggesting that projection bias–over-reliance on immediate perceptions of effort and difficulty–may drive prediction errors.
DOI: 10.1257/mic.20240141
Authors: Samantha Horn, George Loewenstein
Institutions: University of Chicago, Carnegie Mellon University
Language: English
Subfield: General Decision Sciences
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4415619349