Work

From Data-Rich to Data-Scarce: Spatiotemporal Evaluation of a Hybrid Wavelet-Enhanced Deep Learning Model for Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Across Greece

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Efficient wind power forecasting is critical in achieving large-scale integration of wind energy in modern electricity systems. On the other hand, limited availability of wealthy, long-term historical data of wind power generation for many sites of interest often challenges the training of tailored forecasting models, which, in turn, introduces uncertainty concerning the anticipated operational status of similar early-life, or even prospective, wind farm projects. To that end, this study puts forward a spatiotemporal, national-level forecasting exercise as a means of addressing wind power data scarcity in Greece. It does so by developing a hybrid wavelet-enhanced deep learning model that leverages long-term historical data from a reference site located in central Greece. The model is optimized for 24-h day-ahead forecasting, using a hybrid architecture that incorporates discrete wavelet transform for feature extraction, with deep neural networks for spatiotemporal learning. Accordingly, the model’s generalization is evaluated across a number of geographically distributed sites of different quality wind potential, each constrained to only one year of available data. The analysis compares forecasting performance between the original and target sites to assess spatiotemporal robustness of the model without site-specific retraining. Our results demonstrate that the developed model maintains competitive accuracy across data-scarce locations for the first 12 h of the day-ahead forecasting horizon, designating, at the same time, distinct performance patterns, dependent on the geographical and wind potential quality dimensions of the examined areas. Overall, this work underscores the feasibility of leveraging data-rich regions to inform forecasting in under-instrumented areas and contributes to the broader discourse on spatial generalization in renewable energy modeling and planning.

Source: Energies

DOI: 10.3390/en18215585

Authors: Ioannis Laios, Dimitrios Zafirakis, Konstantinos Moustris

Institution: University of West Attica

Language: English

Topic: Energy Load and Power Forecasting

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Climate action, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137