Work

Beyond the Polls: Quantifying Early Signals in Decentralized Prediction Markets with Cross-Correlation and Dynamic Time Warping

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: In response to the persistent failures of traditional election polling, this study introduces the Decentralized Prediction Market Voter Framework (DPMVF), a novel tool to empirically test and quantify the predictive capabilities of Decentralized Prediction Markets (DPMs). We apply the DPMVF to Polymarket, analysing over 11 million on-chain transactions from 1 September to 5 November 2024 against aggregated polling in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election across seven key swing states. By employing Cross-Correlation Function (CCF) for linear analysis and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) for non-linear pattern similarity, the framework provides a robust, multi-faceted measure of the lead-lag relationship between market sentiment and public opinion. Results reveal a striking divergence in predictive clarity across different electoral contexts. In highly contested states like Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, the DPMVF identified statistically significant early signals. Using a non-parametric Permutation Test to validate the observed alignments, we found that Polymarket’s price trends preceded polling shifts by up to 14 days, a finding confirmed as non-spurious with a high confidence (p < 0.01) and with an exceptionally high correlation (up to 0.988) and shape similarity. At the same time, in states with low polling volatility like North Carolina, the framework correctly diagnosed a weak signal, identifying a “low-signal environment” where the market had no significant polling trend to predict. This study’s primary contribution is a validated, descriptive tool for contextualizing DPM signals. The DPMVF moves beyond a simple “pass/fail” verdict on prediction markets, offering a systematic approach to differentiate between genuine early signals and market noise. It provides a foundational tool for researchers, journalists, and campaigns to understand not only if DPMs are predictive but when and why, thereby offering a more nuanced and reliable path forward in the future of election analysis.

Source: Future Internet

DOI: 10.3390/fi17110487

Authors: Francisco Cordoba Otalora, Marinos Themistocleous

Institution: University of Nicosia

Language: English

Topic: Sports Analytics and Performance

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,930

Funders: European Commission, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme