Longer growing seasons will not offset growth loss in drought-prone temperate forests of Central-Southeast Europe
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: The radial growth of temperate forests responds to climate change with remarkable variation across space and between species. However, there is limited understanding of how growing season extension and increasing drought stress contribute to long-term growth trends. Here, we calibrate the VS-Lite growth model using 2013 tree-ring chronologies from ten broadleaved and five coniferous genera in Central-Southeast Europe to predict intra-annual wood formation under four SSP climate scenarios through the 21 st century. Results show that forecasted summer drought stress will be temporarily offset by an extended growing season, leading to stable or positive trends in tree-ring widths until a tipping point in the 2040s–2050s. During the second half of the 21 st century, high-emission scenarios lead to growth acceleration in humid coniferous forests due to growing season extension and enhanced growth rate. In contrast, forecasted extension of the growing season is insufficient to compensate for declining summer growth rates at drier sites, resulting in significant growth reduction for all genera, particularly during dry years. Our results demonstrate that adjusting intra-annual wood formation to seasonal moisture availability may become crucial for tree survival in warmer climates. Furthermore, we highlight that only low-emission scenarios support non-declining stem growth in dry forests with current species composition.
Source: Nature Communications
Authors: Jan Tumajer, Jakub Kašpar, Jan Altman, Nela Altmanová, J. Julio Camarero, Emil Cienciala, Vojtěch Čada, Tomáš Čihák, Jiří Doležal, Pavel Fibich, Pavel Janda, Ryszard Kaczka, Tomáš Kolář, Jiří Lehejček, Jiří Mašek, Radim Matula, Kateřina Neudertová Hellebrandová, Lenka Plavcová, Michal Rybníček, Miloš Rydval, Rohan Shetti, Miroslav Svoboda, Martin Šenfeldr, Pavel Šamonil, Ivana Vašíčková, Monika Vejpustková, Václav Treml
Institutions: Charles University, Landscape Research Institute, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute, Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research, Forestry and Game Management Research Institute, Mendel University in Brno, Jan Evangelista Purkyně University in Ústí nad Labem
Language: English
Topic: Tree-ring climate responses
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $6,990
Awards: Update of Forest ecological classification system including determination of expected development of forest vegetation zones with an evaluation of influence of the meso and microclimate with regard to ongoing climate changes and their predictions, G1812425106, G2677629327, G2678520069, Does tree transpiration drive forest calcium biogeochemistry? Or the other way round?, G3030279530, Quantifying the effects of phenology, growth rate, and growth occurrence for annual wood formation, G5645882871
OpenAlex ID: W4415660306