Work

A comprehensive framework for quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on baseflow and direct runoff: Application across six diverse basins in China

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Study regionThe source region of the Yellow River, the Jinghe River, the Luanhe River, the Huaihe River, the Ganjiang River, and the Dongjiang RiverStudy FocusQuantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff is essential for water resource protection and management. However, the respective effects on runoff components, specifically baseflow and direct runoff, remain insufficiently explored and quantified. This study proposes a comprehensive framework to quantify the contributions of the two factors to annual and seasonal baseflow and direct runoff changes, using an extended Budyko method. Six basins across China were selected to assess the framework’s effectiveness.New Hydrological Insights for the RegionResults indicate that Human activities are the primary factor contributing to the decline in annual baseflow and direct runoff in the Yellow River, Luanhe River, and Dongjiang River, while climate change has a more pronounced impact on baseflow and direct runoff in other basins. Moreover, the impacts of both factors on baseflow and direct runoff are greater during the rainy season compared to the dry season, except in the Huaihe River. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively distinguishes the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff components.

Source: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102879