Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Maritime ferries increasingly operate under non-stationary hydro–meteorological conditions that complicate cost planning. This study investigates how short-term weather variability affects expenditures for a ferry on the Gdynia–Karlskrona route. We combine a state-based operational framework (18 discrete states) with a subsystem-level cost model covering navigation, propulsion/steering, loading/unloading, stability control, and mooring/anchoring. Direct and indirect costs are linked to subsystem activity and state duration, while weather is incorporated through hazard categories that scale hourly costs. Expert-elicited rates and observed monthly state durations provide the basis for baseline estimates and hazard scenario simulations. Results reveal a disproportionate cost structure: two open-sea states constitute over 97% of the baseline monthly cost (19,490.19 PLN). Weather hazards further amplify costs, with moderate (1st-degree) and severe (2nd-degree) scenarios producing increases of ~8% and ~20%, respectively, compared to normal conditions. By embedding weather as an endogenous factor in a probabilistic cost model based on a semi-Markov process, the approach enhances predictive fidelity and supports decision-making for climate-resilient planning. These findings suggest that adaptive routing, speed management, and targeted maintenance of the propulsion and steering subsystems during open-sea navigation offer the highest potential for cost resilience. The study provides operators and policymakers with a transparent framework for climate-resilient planning and investment in semi-enclosed maritime corridors.
Source: Water
DOI: 10.3390/w17213146
Authors: Beata Magryta-Mut, Mateusz Torbicki
Institution: Gdynia Maritime University
Language: English
Topic: Maritime Ports and Logistics
Subfield: Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,137
Funder: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni
Awards: G4700056476, G7895020050
OpenAlex ID: W4415812954