Work

Incorporating IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Precipitation Scenarios into Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling of the Upper Skawa Mountainous Catchment, Poland

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Mountain catchments in Central Europe are highly susceptible to flash floods. To inform local adaptation, this study quantifies the future flood response of a Polish Carpathian catchment (Upper Skawa, 240.4 km2) to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. A semi-distributed HEC-HMS model was calibrated and validated using observed flood events (2014–2019). Future hydrographs were then simulated using the delta change method for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (near- and long-term horizons). The validated model showed high predictive accuracy. Results indicate a consistent trend towards a polarized hydrological regime, with increased spring/autumn flood peaks and decreased summer flows. This trend is significantly amplified under the RCP8.5 scenario, with long-term peak flood increases approximately double those of RCP4.5. The catchment’s non-linear response further compounds these impacts. These findings suggest a future of heightened seasonal flood risk and emerging summer water scarcity, implying that existing infrastructure, designed for historical stationarity, may be insufficient. This study provides a quantitative evidence base for re-evaluating regional flood risk policies and developing integrated adaptation strategies.

Source: Water

DOI: 10.3390/w17213128

Authors: Paweł Gilewski, Arkadii Sochinskii, Magdalena Reizer

Institutions: Warsaw University of Technology, Université Côte d'Azur

Language: English

Topic: Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Subfield: Water Science and Technology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137