Goodwin’s Early Macrodynamic Models: A Singular Post-WWII Analysis of Shocks, Irregularities and Innovations
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This is an accepted article with a DOI pre-assigned that is not yet published.This article revisits the work of Richard Goodwin, a twentieth-century Americaneconometrician, through the prism of his singular approach: the systematicintegration of exogenous shocks into business cycle modeling. Paradoxically, thischaracteristic remains largely ignored by his commentators, who prefer to focus onself-perpetuating cycles in absence of shocks. The article traces the evolution ofGoodwin's thinking, from his initial attempts to formalize Schumpeterian theories tohis non-linear models, emphasizing the influence of his background as a physicist andthe tensions between his personal convictions and the political context. Exploring thisintellectual context and Goodwin's models sheds light on research avenues andmodelling strategies related to the econometric society. It is also worth drawingattention to the tensions that run through his work. The introduction of exogenousfactors, while providing an account of certain irregularities in cycles, contradictsSchumpeter's ambition for endogenous dynamics, and calls into question the scope ofnon-linearity as a sufficient explanation.
DOI: 10.16995/rhetm.23236
Author: Angelo Vieira
Institution: Université Lumière Lyon 2
Language: English
Topic: Economic Theory and Policy
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4415815944