Work

How natural disasters spread conflict

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This paper studies how natural disasters spread conflicts within a network. We first construct a new panel data set that combines geo-referenced information about conflict events and natural disasters, for 5,944 districts in 53 African countries, over the period 1989–2020. Considering natural disasters as exogenous shocks that affect the combatants’ activity in a locality, we find that natural disasters decrease conflict incidence in the affected locality, increase conflict incidence in neighbouring localities, and lead to an overall net increase in conflict incidence. The spatial dispersion of conflict varies by the level of local rent-seeking opportunities and the level of international, post-disaster aid. We then provide a simple theoretical framework that may explain this conflict dispersion pattern. Findings provide important implications for implementing local and aggregate level conflict mitigation policies.

Source: European Economic Review

DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105194

Authors: Ashani Amarasinghe, Paul A. Raschky, Yves Zenou, Junjie Zhou

Institutions: The University of Sydney, Monash University, Tsinghua University

Language: English

Topic: Political Conflict and Governance

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,690