Work

Research and Optimization of Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Based on Symmetric Parallel TCN-TST-BiGRU Architecture

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: (1) Background: Ultra-short-term photovoltaic (PV) power prediction is crucial for optimizing grid scheduling and enhancing energy utilization efficiency. Existing prediction methods face challenges of missing data, noise interference, and insufficient accuracy. (2) Methods: This study proposes a single-step hybrid neural network model integrating Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Temporal Shift Transformer (TST), and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) to achieve high-precision 15-minute-ahead PV power prediction, with a design aligned with symmetry principles. Data preprocessing uses Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and random forest interpolation to suppress noise and repair missing values. A symmetric parallel dual-branch feature extraction module is built: TCN-TST extracts local dynamics and long-term dependencies, while BiGRU captures global features. This symmetric structure matches the intra-day periodic symmetry of PV power (e.g., symmetric irradiance patterns around noon) and avoids bias from single-branch models. Tensor concatenation and an adaptive attention mechanism realize feature fusion and dynamic weighted output. (3) Results: Experiments on real data from a Xinjiang PV power station, with hyperparameter optimization (BiGRU units, activation function, TCN kernels, TST parameters), show that the model outperforms comparative models in MAE and R2—e.g., the MAE is 26.53% and 18.41% lower than that of TCN and Transforme. (4) Conclusions: The proposed method achieves a balance between accuracy and computational efficiency. It provides references for PV station operation, system scheduling, and grid stability.

Source: Symmetry

DOI: 10.3390/sym17111855