Work

Trends and cyclical patterns of dengue disease in Mexico: A 40-year time series analysis

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: PurposeTo rigorously determine the existence, periodicity, and public health implications of long-term cyclical patterns in dengue incidence in Mexico using four decades of national surveillance data.MethodsWe performed a retrospective time series analysis of all reported dengue cases in Mexico from 1985 to May 2025, using two official national datasets. Incidence rates were calculated, and advanced time series methods (LOESS smoothing, STL decomposition, spectral and Butterworth filtering) were applied. Temporal trends, serotype distributions, and hospitalization rates from 2020–2025 were analyzed. Long-term trends were quantified using Mann-Kendall, Sen’s Slope, and linear regression.ResultsOver 1.7 million dengue cases were recorded nationally, with nearly 44% concentrated in five high-burden states. National incidence increased significantly (Sen’s Slope: +1,410 cases/year). We identified a reproducible multi-annual cycle of 5–6 years, confirmed by spectral and autocorrelation analyses. This cyclical pattern persisted in coastal and high-incidence states. The recent predominance of DENV-3 correlated with higher incidence and hospitalization rates.ConclusionsDengue incidence in Mexico has risen steadily over four decades and exhibits a robust 5–6-year cyclical pattern, mirroring patterns seen in other endemic regions. Recognizing and anticipating these dynamics may allow for more effective, proactive timing of vector control and immunization strategies.

Source: Annals of Epidemiology

DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2025.10.022