Work

Spatiotemporal patterns of the atrial fibrillation/flutter burden due to environmental, behavioral, and metabolic risk factors, 1990–2021: results from the GBD 2021

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Background Patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) face higher risks of death, heart failure, and thromboembolic events, with major attributable risk factors.Objective This study examined epidemiological data and trends on six major risk factors contributing to the AF/AFL burden from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.Methods AF/AFL risk-attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardised mortality (ASMR) and DALY (ASDRs) rates from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD database. Future trends were predicted using the ARIMA model, and annual percentage changes assessed major risk factors and regional disease burden differences, with subgroup analyses by socio-demographic index (SDI) regions and countries. Statistical analysis was performed using R software version 4.3.1, and a two-sided p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results Environmental, behavioural, and metabolic risk factors significantly influenced the AF/AFL burden from 1990 to 2021, with ASMRs and ASDRs showing clear spatial and temporal patterns.FORECASTED TRENDS Deaths and DALYs attributable to these risk factors are projected to continue rising over the next 30 years, with body mass index (BMI) driving the largest increase in AF/AFL burden, while environmental and behavioural influences are expected to plateau.SPATIAL VARIATION Regional disparities remain, with high-SDI areas experiencing burden stabilisation through improved risk factor control, whereas low-SDI regions – particularly those undergoing rapid urbanisation with higher lead exposure and alcohol use – face increasing burdens, especially from metabolic risks.Conclusion AF/AFL burden will continue to rise, primarily driven by metabolic risks such as high BMI, with regional disparities highlighting the need for targeted preventive strategies.

Source: Acta cardiologica. Supplementum

DOI: 10.1080/00015385.2025.2578031

Authors: Hongrui Yang, Zhizheng Wang, Lei Yang, Fangxiao Hu, Jie Yang

Institutions: Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Second Hospital of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Shandong University, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine

Language: English

Topic: Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes

Subfield: Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Funder: National Natural Science Foundation of China