Modeling Future Urban Microclimates in Athens, Greece: An ENVI-Met Analysis of Local Climate Zones Under Different Emission Scenarios
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This study investigates how future climate change will influence urban microclimates in Athens, Greece, focusing on two representative districts classified as Local Climate Zones (LCZ2 and LCZ3). Using the ENVI-met model, microclimate simulations were conducted to assess projected air temperature variations under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid- and late-century conditions. The analysis reveals a consistent warming trend across both districts, with average air temperature increases of approximately 2–3 °C by mid-century and up to 4.5 °C by the end of the century. Morphological characteristics were found to significantly affect thermal behavior: areas with wider street canyons exhibited higher temperatures due to increased solar exposure, whereas shaded inner courtyards remained relatively cooler. The study’s novelty lies in its integration of high-resolution urban microclimate modeling with climate scenario analysis for a Mediterranean metropolis, a combination seldom explored in previous research. The findings underline the importance of incorporating urban morphology into climate adaptation planning, supporting the design of low-carbon and thermally resilient urban forms in densely built environments.
Source: Buildings
Institutions: University of Patras, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Language: English
Topic: Urban Heat Island Mitigation
Subfield: Environmental Engineering
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,137
OpenAlex ID: W4415924043