Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Coastal flooding, caused by sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and tropical cyclones, is a growing threat. Previous studies have documented mortality associated with historical coastal flooding and modeled mortality risk as a function of SLR and human development. This study updates those estimates and provides new forecasts by including global mortality data from events between 1990 and 2024 and leverages an improved method for estimating historical and future coastal populations exposed to coastal flooding events. Primary data sources include the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and the Sea Level Impacts Input Dataset by Elevation, Region, and Scenario (SLIIDERS) model. Trend analyses indicate increasing coastal flooding events and decreasing deaths per event over the 35-year period. On average, countries and territories with lower Human Development Index have higher coastal flooding event mortality rates. A mixed effect regression model suggests that mortality risk per event averages 0.55% of exposed individuals across countries, ranging from 0.00004% (Netherlands) to 16% (Peru), and totaling ~33,435 deaths per year. Applying projected 2050 and 2100 SLR and population changes, per-event mortality increases by 37–69% by 2050 and 43–250% in 2100 globally, depending on the socioeconomic and climate scenario. These increases result from projected increases in exposed populations (from demographic changes and sea level rise) and do not reflect likely changes in event frequency or magnitude. The country-specific and regional mortality forecasts presented here allow prioritization of investments and improved budgeting for coastal resilience and climate adaptation policies.
Institutions: Virginia Tech, Johns Hopkins University, University of Virginia
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Award: G3654172387
OpenAlex ID: W4415966680
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