Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a skillful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in most TC basins. This study examines recent changes in the observed ENSO‐TC teleconnection strength, as measured by ENSO modulation of hurricane frequency. We find that the ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection fluctuated over time, with the strongest relationship occurring from the 1980s to the mid‐2000s. In the western and eastern North Pacific, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection has strengthened in recent decades. Periods with a strong ENSO‐TC teleconnection are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, with higher values of genesis potential indices. Positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation coincided with periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins. A weaker Atlantic ENSO‐TC relationship was associated with negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. This research reveals climate conditions that modulate ENSO's utility for seasonal TC prediction.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2025gl116968
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,190
Awards: THE FORCED TRENDS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EARTH SYSTEM MODELS, Collaborative Research: The Relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity and Tropical Cyclones in a Hierarchy of Models, Collaborative Research: The Relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity and Tropical Cyclones in a Hierarchy of Models, VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS: COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN DRIVERS AND COASTAL IMPACTS, Collaborative Research: Forced Trends in the Tropical Pacific and Global Tropical Cyclones
OpenAlex ID: W4416102136