Work

Fractional Modeling and Dynamic Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission with Computational Simulations

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Most existing fractional models of COVID-19 describe only the infection process without explicitly accounting for the role of vaccination. In this study, a refined Caputo fractional model is proposed that incorporates a vaccinated class to better understand how immunization influences disease progression. The mathematical formulation guarantees the existence, uniqueness, and positivity of solutions, ensuring that all system trajectories remain biologically valid. The equilibrium points are obtained, and the reproduction number is derived to identify the conditions for disease control. The stability investigation covers local behavior alongside Ulam–Hyers and its extended variants, ensuring the system remains stable under small perturbations. Numerical experiments performed with the Adams–Bashforth–Moulton algorithm illustrate that vaccination reduces infection peaks and shortens the epidemic duration. Overall, the proposed framework enriches fractional epidemiological modeling by providing deeper insight into the combined effects of memory and vaccination in controlling infectious diseases.

Source: Mathematics

DOI: 10.3390/math13223619

Authors: Mohamed. M. Alarady, Mohamed A. Barakat, Mohamed M. Darwish

Institution: University of Tabuk

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137