Trends and age-period-cohort effect on incidence and mortality of unintentional drowning from 1990 to 2021 in China
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Unintentional drowning is a major public health concern worldwide, placing a substantial burden on global emergency medical services, with China bearing a particularly heavy burden. This study aims to comprehensively analyse the trends in incidence and mortality rates of unintentional drowning in China from 1990 to 2021, and to forecast future trends from 2022 to 2036. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, this study employs the age-period-cohort (APC) analysis framework to examine the epidemiological characteristics of unintentional drowning in China from 1990 to 2021, and uses the Bayesian APC model to forecast trends from 2022 to 2036. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, China's age-standardised drowning incidence rate fell from 38.84 to 16.69 per 100 000 people, while mortality dropped from 14.94 to 4.12 per 100 000. The age effect showed a U-shaped distribution, with highest risks in ages 0-19 and over 80. By 2036, projections suggest further decreases to 12.79 and 1.85 per 100 000 for incidence and mortality, respectively. CONCLUSION: The incidence and mortality rates of unintentional drowning in China have decreased significantly over the past 31 years and are projected to continue declining over the next 15 years, although at a slower pace. To sustain this improvement, more targeted intervention strategies and enhanced protection for high-risk populations are needed.
Source: Injury Prevention
Authors: Peng Jiang, Wanting Cao, Caixia Jiang, Kang Qin, Jue Xu
Institution: Hangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4416185159