Economic Determinants of European Migration Flows Through Cluster Analysis and Panel Data Modeling
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This study analyzes the relationships between national economic indicators and migration flows among 35 European countries and the European Union over the period 2015-2023. Using a two-step methodology, cluster analysis identifies four distinct country profiles based on their economic performance (GDP per capita, unemployment rate) and migration attractiveness. Panel data econometric modeling with country and time fixed effects confirms that GDP per capita has a significant positive effect on immigration flows, while unemployment rates exert a strong negative influence. Furthermore, major external shocks, such as the COVID-19 health crisis and the war in Ukraine, substantially modify these relationships, reducing or amplifying migration flows. The results reveal a clear segmentation of European countries into homogeneous groups, highlighting the complexity of economic determinants of intra-European migration. The econometric analysis, based on a balanced panel of 315 country-year observations, demonstrates robust statistical relationships. A €1,000 increase in GDP per capita is associated with an average increase of 12,450 immigrants per year, while each additional percentage point of unemployment corresponds to a decrease of 25,431 immigrants annually. The COVID-19 crisis reduced immigration flows by approximately 55,000 people per year, whereas the Ukraine war generated an additional influx of 132,500 immigrants annually, likely attributable to refugee movements. Cluster analysis identifies four distinct groups: (1) high-GDP countries with very high immigration and low unemployment, including Germany, Nordic countries, and high value-added economies; (2) developed countries with moderate GDP, significant migration flows, and elevated unemployment; (3) Central and Eastern European countries characterized by modest economic development and reduced migration flows; and (4) small- to medium-sized economies with good GDP per capita but moderate immigration and stable low unemployment. These findings contribute to a better understanding of economic dynamics and cyclical shocks influencing contemporary migrations in Europe. The research validates classical "push-pull" migration theories while enriching understanding through an updated, multidimensional perspective. Results suggest that migration policies would benefit from differentiation according to economic profiles and integration of major crisis management to better anticipate flows and ensure social cohesion. The study's limitations include its macroeconomic focus, which does not account for individual migrant profiles, and the relatively short time span. Future research should integrate microeconomic data, institutional variables, and advanced modeling techniques to capture non-linearities and heterogeneities not addressed here.
Author: Zyed Achour
Institutions: University of Carthage, Université Tunis Carthage
Language: English
Topic: Migration and Labor Dynamics
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Funder: European Commission
OpenAlex ID: W4416191367