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Machine Learning Reveals Novel Pediatric Heart Failure Phenotypes with Distinct Mortality and Hospitalization Outcomes

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Background: Pediatric heart failure (PHF) is a heterogeneous syndrome with high morbidity, but existing classification systems inadequately capture its developmental and pathophysiological complexity due to reliance on adult-centric parameters. Using machine learning, we aimed to identify clinically distinct PHF phenotypes with unique outcomes and therapeutic implications. Methods: In this multicenter retrospective study, we analyzed 2903 consecutive PHF patients (≤18 years) from 30 Chinese tertiary centers from 20 provinces (2013–2022). Unsupervised machine learning (k-means clustering with PCA) evaluated 99 clinical, biomarker, and echocardiographic variables to derive phenotypes, which were compared for mortality, hospitalization, and treatment responses. Results: Three phenotypically distinct clusters emerged. Cluster 1 (Chronic Hypertensive and Cardiorenal Profile, 30.1%) predominantly affected older children (78%) with hypertension (54.4%), renal dysfunction (creatinine 45.8 μmol/L), and ventricular tachycardia (53.8%). This cluster showed the lowest in-hospital mortality (2.5%) but frequent 7–14 day hospitalizations (35.8%) and the highest beta-blocker use (54.5%). Cluster 2 (Preterm and CHD-Associated HF, 43.4%) comprised preterm infants (71.4%) with congenital heart disease (72.2%) and preserved LVEF (67%), demonstrating the highest mortality (5.1%) and prolonged stays (>30 days: 10.6%) with predominant diuretic (40.6%) and antibiotic use (54.3%). Cluster 3 (Fulminant Myocarditis Profile, 26.5%) exhibited cardiogenic shock with severely reduced LVEF (33%) and elevated BNP (3234 pg/mL), showing bimodal outcomes (4.8% LOS < 3 days vs. 32.2% LOS 15–30 days) and the highest IVIG utilization (46.5%) with intermediate mortality (3.8%). The majority of between-group differences were statistically significant (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Machine learning identified three PHF phenotypes with distinct in-hospital risk profiles and therapeutic implications, challenging current classification systems. These findings highlight the potential for phenotype-specific management strategies and provide a rationale for future research into arrhythmia prevention in hypertensive profiles and early immunomodulation in fulminant myocarditis, while highlighting the need for specialized care pathways for preterm/CHD patients. Prospective validation is warranted to translate this framework into clinical practice.

Source: Diagnostics

DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics15222893