Work

The Policy Spatial Footprint: Causal Identification of Land Value Capitalization Using Network-Time Exposure

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Policies rarely act on simple circles around project sites. We develop a policy-semantics-to-geometry workflow that converts clause-level rules in ordinances into auditable Policy Spatial Footprints (PSFs) with explicit boundaries, timing markers, and intensity tiers, and we measure exposure in network time on road–rail graphs. Using 1.10 million arm’s-length parcel transactions from five Yangtze River Delta cities (2012–2024) and a catalog of 64 policies across regulatory, transport, and industrial/functional families, we estimate dynamic capitalization under staggered roll-outs while separating direct footprint effects from adjacency diffusion. Direct exposures are associated with policy-relevant uplifts that build over several years and then stabilize; spillovers attenuate within a few minutes of network travel time. Effects are systematically larger in thicker markets and where pre-policy regulatory headroom is greater. The PSF framework yields estimator-consistent maps with provenance and uncertainty tiers, providing a transparent basis for land-value-capture scheduling and equity-aware carve-outs.

Source: Land

DOI: 10.3390/land14112240

Authors: Ming Xie, Xiaoxiao Liao, Tetsuya Yaguchi

Institutions: Waseda University, Keio University

Language: English

Topic: Urban Planning and Valuation

Subfield: Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137