A quantitative assessment framework for ship collision risk: Integrating spatiotemporal urgency analysis
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Ship collision risk assessment is essential for maritime safety, guiding timely and accurate evasive actions. Traditional models often fail to capture key factors such as dynamic vessel motion and relative positioning. This study proposes a novel spatiotemporal framework for collision risk quantification. Spatial urgency is assessed using a Quaternion Ship Domain (QSD), where the dynamic rate of change in overlapping areas—computed via the Monte Carlo method—reflects spatial collision risk. Meanwhile, temporal urgency is captured through a newly defined Minimum Safe Distance Urgency (MSDU), which evaluates how the actual distance between vessels compares to a simulated minimum safe threshold under various encounter geometries. By integrating these two indicators, the study establishes a multidimensional Collision Risk Index (CRI) optimized via ridge regression. Three classic encounter scenarios—crossing, head-on, and overtaking—are simulated to validate the model. Results show that the proposed method detects risk trends more accurately and promptly than traditional DCPA, TCPA, or static ship domain approaches. The framework enhances situational awareness and offers practical value for real-time navigation and decision-making under urgent maritime conditions.
Source: Ocean Engineering
Authors: Yu Chen Xin, Xiong Guan Bao, Yaping Yang
Institution: Ningbo University
Language: English
Subfield: Ocean Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,150
OpenAlex ID: W4416388018