Work

Forest favours conditions for convective precipitation in the Mediterranean Basin

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: . The Mediterranean Basin is identified as a climate change hotspot and prone to future drying. Previous studies indicate that the effect of forests on precipitation remains unclear for the Mediterranean Basin specifically. Here we use a simple model to simulate the development of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to determine the impact of forest on convective rainfall potential. There is convective rainfall potential when (1) the ABL reaches the lifting condensation level, and (2) there is sufficient convective available potential energy. We model the ABL development over the Mediterranean Basin covered fully with bare soil and forest to determine its land cover sensitivity. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the ABL to variations in soil moisture for the forest scenario specifically. We identify two distinct responses to forestation in the Mediterranean Basin dependent on soil moisture content. Forestation contributes to warming and drying in relatively dry regions (low soil moisture content) and to cooling and wetting in relatively wet regions (high soil moisture content), indicating that dry gets drier and wet gets wetter. We find that both forestation and an increase in soil moisture can contribute to convective rainfall potential. In regions with a relatively high soil moisture content, forestation positively influences both the convective available potential energy, and the crossing of the ABL and lifting condensation level. The results show that forestation in the Mediterranean Basin may reduce future drying in relatively wet regions and enhance future drying in relatively dry regions.

Source: Biogeosciences

DOI: 10.5194/bg-22-6913-2025