Work

C4MIP-based projections of moisture convergence and extreme precipitation risks in East Asia

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: As climate change accelerates, extreme precipitation is becoming more frequent and intense across East Asia, underscoring the need for improved understanding of evolving hydrological regimes. While most future projections have relied on CMIP6 models, the Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) integrates terrestrial–oceanic carbon cycle feedback including nitrogen deposition and biogeochemical processes to enhance the reliability of climate projection. Despite these advancements, C4MIP has been underutilized in hydrological assessments for East Asia. In this study, we analyze multi-model ensembles from C4MIP to evaluate patterns of vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC). Our results demonstrate that C4MIP offers improved skill in capturing both seasonal and annual VIMFC patterns, particularly during periods of pronounced convergence or divergence. Under the SSP5-8.5-bgc scenario, projections indicate intensified moisture convergence and an elevated risk of extreme precipitation over southeastern China and North Korea. These findings provide a diagnostic evaluation of C4MIP’s hydrological performance and offer valuable insights for future regional climate projections and adaptation strategies.

Source: Atmospheric Research

DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108637

Authors: Nayeon Jeon, Dasom Lee, Rackhun Son

Institution: Pukyong National University

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,310