Effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of the endangered Hainan gymnure (Neohylomys hainanensis) on Hainan Island
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Climate change is a key driver of threats to global biodiversity; therefore, assessing its temporal and spatial impacts on endangered species and their habitats is crucial for developing adaptive conservation strategies. This study investigated the habitat dynamics of the endangered Hainan gymnure ( Neohylomys hainanensis ) by integrating ecological niche modelling using MaxEnt with geospatial analysis using ArcGIS. We considered ten climatic variables, three timepoints (current, 2055, and 2085), and three CO 2 emission scenarios. The results showed that 1) the current potential suitable habitat area is 11,092.14 km 2 (32.75% of Hainan Island), which is mainly distributed in central Hainan Island; 2) elevation (PC = 78.5%) and Bio1 (PI = 60.0%) are key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of suitable habitat and have synergistic effects; 3) suitable habitats show shrinking trends under the three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Of note, annual average temperatures will significantly increase in the high-altitude areas under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which will nearly eliminate suitable habitat areas. This study clarifies the geographical distribution range, key limiting factors, and future habitat change trends of N. hainanensis , thereby providing a scientific basis for the species’ adaptive conservation and management and offering reference data on the climate response mechanisms of tropical island species.
Source: Scientific Reports
Authors: Yaqin Qiao, Chaosheng Mu, Yang Yang, Feiyun Tu
Institution: Hainan Normal University
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,690
OpenAlex ID: W4416410070