Work

Accounting for wave-induced environmental uncertainty in CO₂ emission predictions for maritime operations

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Reliable estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from maritime operations is vital for understanding their environmental impact and supporting international decarbonization policies such as those mandated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). However, current CO₂ prediction methods often overlook environmental uncertainties—particularly wave-induced resistance—which significantly influence engine performance and emissions in real-world conditions. This study presents an enhanced CO₂ emission prediction framework that explicitly accounts for wave-induced environmental variability using empirical wave data and Monte Carlo simulations. By integrating wave resistance with telegraph-mode-based engine operations, our model improves prediction accuracy under variable sea states. Comparative analysis with traditional design-based and activity-based methods shows that those approaches may underestimate emissions by up to 86 % under full navigation scenarios. The proposed method more closely aligns with actual emission measurements, demonstrating that wave-induced uncertainty is a non-negligible factor in CO₂ modeling. These findings emphasize the necessity of incorporating dynamic oceanographic conditions into emissions assessments to improve environmental accountability and regulatory compliance in maritime transport. • An improved CO₂ prediction model integrates wave-induced resistance and sea-state variability. • Monte Carlo simulation is used to quantify environmental uncertainty in maritime emissions. • The model shows up to 86 % higher CO₂ estimates compared to design-based approaches. • Predicted emissions closely match measured raw data across multiple engine modes. • This approach supports more reliable environmental impact assessments and IMO policy alignment.

Source: The Science of The Total Environment

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180955

Authors: Jaewon Jang, Jong Hun Woo, Daekyun Oh

Institutions: Mokpo National Maritime University, Seoul National University

Language: English

Topic: Maritime Transport Emissions and Efficiency

Subfield: Environmental Engineering

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life below water, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,250