The burden of diabetes nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021, with forecast to 2036: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Amid rising diabetes prevalence, the burden of diabetes-related chronic kidney disease (DKD) is escalating, particularly in China. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological trends of DKD in China and develop a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict its incidence from 2022 to 2036. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) were used to assess DKD's burden in China between 1990 and 2021, including age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). BAPC models were applied to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects and to project future trends. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, the ASIR for chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 1 (DKD1) decreased (annual percent change (APC) = -0.57, P < 0.001), while ASPR increased (APC = 1.25, P < 0.001). ASMR and DALYs both declined (APC = -1.98, P < 0.001; APC = -1.99, P < 0.001). For chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 (DKD2), ASIR slightly increased (APC = 0.44, P < 0.001), but both ASPR and ASMR decreased (APC = -0.23, P = 0.004; APC = -0.56, P < 0.001). Projections suggest an increase in DKD2 incidence and declining incidence for DKD1 by 2036. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insights into the trends of DKD burden in China over the past three decades. The BAPC offers a reliable forecast for the next 15 years, aiding future research to reduce DKD's impact in China.
Source: BMC Public Health
Authors: Yuegui Wang, Junyan Wu, Haiquan He, Qiuting Yang, Haolin Shen
Institution: Fujian Medical University
Language: English
Subfield: Nephrology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,290
Funder: Fujian Medical University
OpenAlex ID: W4416533978