Work

The liver cancer due to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis attributable to metabolic risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2021: an age–period–cohort analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-related liver cancer (LC), attributable to metabolic risk factors, is a significant global health challenge. This study investigates its burden from 1990 to 2021, focusing on temporal trends, geographic disparities, and demographic patterns, with projections to 2050. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths were quantified by sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles. Decomposition, age-period-cohort, and Bayesian modeling were employed to evaluate drivers and project trends. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, global DALYs and deaths due to NASH-related LC attributable to metabolic risk factors nearly tripled, with the DALY age-standardized rate (ASR) rising by 81.2% (95% CI: 60.2-105.1%) and the death ASR by 90.9% (95% CI: 67.4-116.3%). High-SDI countries had the highest ASRs, but low/low-middle-SDI regions saw the fastest growth, particularly among younger populations. Males bore a higher burden, though female rates increased faster in older groups. Epidemiological changes (41.8%), aging (29.5%), and population growth (28.7%) drove DALY increases. Projections suggest DALYs and deaths will nearly triple by 2050, shifting toward older ages. CONCLUSION: The global burden of NASH-related LC is increasing sharply, with significant temporal, geographic, and demographic disparities. These trends pose an escalating challenge for surgical systems, necessitating strategic investment in hepatobiliary surgical capacity, perioperative infrastructure, and preventive public health measures - particularly for aging, comorbid populations.

Source: International Journal of Surgery

DOI: 10.1097/js9.0000000000003814

Authors: Yuanyuan Ye, Ziping Li, Yian Gu, Mi Zhou, Ming Liu

Institutions: Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin Medical University, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Fu Wai Hospital

Language: English

Topic: Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment

Subfield: Epidemiology

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDGs: Good health and well-being, Reduced inequalities

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,450