Using Subjective Measures for Numeracy and Spatial Cognition to Predict Accuracy of Interpreting a Tropical Forecast Graphic
Year: 2025
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: The weather domain has given a lot of attention towards numeracy, meaning a person’s ability to understand numerical information, for predicting how accurately different groups interpret forecast information. However, these forecasts are often presented graphically with a map, yet not many studies include a geographic equivalent to numeracy in their measures. Additionally, despite the cognitive load on participants, much of the literature measures numeracy and spatial cognition with mathematical tests. This study provides justification from interdisciplinary literature for using subjective scales to measure spatial cognition, or the ability to understand maps, along with numeracy to predict accuracy. Using a new wind speed exceedance threshold (WSET) tropical cyclone graphic, we tested the relationships between numeracy, spatial cognition, and accuracy in a public survey (n = 624) and with nineteen experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) from Louisiana and Florida. Numeracy independently predicted accuracy of interpretation, with spatial cognition having a small, statistically nonsignificant effect. This study provides empirical support for measuring numeracy and spatial cognition using subjective scales, as well as an accuracy measure for a new tropical forecast graphic. Future studies should continue to measure both numeracy and spatial cognition when assessing how individual characteristics impact forecast graphic interpretation.
Authors: Zoey Rosen, Marilee Long
Institutions: University of Oklahoma, Colorado State University
Language: English
Subfield: Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4416660261