Assessing the suppression difficulty of wildland fires for initial attack response
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Background Fire simulation frameworks and decision support systems (DSSs) are critical tools in fire response dispatching that need to consider factors influencing fire spread and suppression difficulty while provide easily interpreted indexes. Aims We present a new user-friendly Initial Attack Assessment (IAA) index, ranging from 1 to 5, designed to quickly and efficiently evaluate wildfires from their onset. Methods We used 26,907 California’s wildfire ignitions to run automatic simulations. The Fire Behavior Index (FBI), Terrain Difficulty Index (TDI) and IAA were determined using size-based and fire behavior outputs from each simulation. Initial attack success was evaluated by comparing simulations with real fire sizes. Binary models were calibrated and validated to predict success based on IAA, FBI and TDI, and suppression response time. Key results The IAA effectively identified fires exceeding suppression capacity. Higher levels of IAA, FBI and TDI were associated with reduced success odds, IAA=5 giving a 90% decrease in the odds of initial attack success. Response time and its interaction with terrain difficulty were also influential. Conclusions The IAA is a powerful index to feed DSSs, prioritizing fire response and predicting the probability of control at a small size. Implications This ensures practicality for end-users, allowing agencies and utilities to better respond to wildfires.
DOI: 10.1071/wf24160
Authors: Adrián Cardil, Adrián Jiménez-Ruano, Santiago Monedero, Phillip SeLegue, Macarena Ortega, Raúl Quilez, Jeff Fuentes, Geoff Marshall, Robert Clark, Tim Chavez, Sergio de-Miguel, Tomás Quiñones, Fernando Bezares, Scott Purdy, Kristen Allison, Tim Metzger, Chris Waters, Midhun Mohan, Joaquín Ramirez
Language: English
Topic: Fire effects on ecosystems
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4416675100