Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Several speed-crash models have been developed, enabling proactive estimations of road crash changes in response to driving speed changes. The models have been based primarily on the macro- level high-speed data and have gained popularity; however, their suitability to the localised (micro- level) low-speed conditions is uncertain. To fill this gap, the present study collected a number of speed-crash data samples to study the relationship between the expected crash changes based on the Exponential model and real crash changes, using the specific categories based on speed management measure characteristics. Although there were some positive results, the overall findings were mixed: approximately half of the categories did exhibit a statistically significant relationship between the model prediction and reality, but half did not. While the Exponential model is a valuable speed-crash estimation tool, it may not be fully valid for the micro-scale evaluations, including the low-speed environment and speed management measures with small speed reductions.
Authors: Jiří Ambros, Mariusz Kieć
Institutions: Transport Research Centre, Cracow University of Technology
Language: English
Topic: Traffic and Road Safety
Subfield: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,990
OpenAlex ID: W4416683422